26.02.09

Eight Moscow residents who lost their jobs took part in a focus-group discussion. They sat at one table in a small room and answered questions posed by the moderator. They were video-taped, and spoke for almost 2 hours in an unforced conversation about what to do next and who is to blame for what happened. "And what can you say about Putin?", the question resounded. "Are we still being filmed?", one of the participants laughed. "You do not have to answer if you don't want to," the moderator retorted. "I was joking, excuse me. My attitude is absolutely normal," the unemployed woman corrected herself. "I generally love our presidents. Very much. I have an irrational love for both presidents," continued another participant. He recently closed down his business. "I like (Putin), I hope he does something."

The banking crisis, industrial decline and layoffs. The government has performed devaluation and is now thinking about what to do with the budget. It is time to summarize the first results. Last week. That is what leading sociologists did. And they came to conclusions that were entirely reassuring for the Kremlin and the White house.

Yes, the peoples' mood has greatly soured. Even those whom the crisis has not affected feel that things will get worse. But nevertheless, it is unlikely that these feelings will spill out into broad mass protests. Studies show that the crisis has not yet shaken the support of Vladimir Putin and Dmitriy Medvedev. "What does Putin have to do with this?" - that is the typical answer to the question of who is to blame for what is going on with the economy. We might have expected that, with the crisis, people would begin to doubt their government. But it turns out to be just the opposite: The reserves are melting away, but the reserve of confidence in the premier and the president is not being exhausted. This is something that the people want to retain, so that what is happening will not remind them of the chaos of the crisis 90's.

Temporary difficulties

Of course, the people now have much less hope. Sociologists have a special questionnaire, according to which they draw the index of consumer sentiments.

"A dramatic drop by as much as 30 points from May through December," Aleksandr Demidov from the Russian branch of the GfK Marketing institute said last Wednesday at a conference held at the Higher School of Economics. "In fact, expectations have collapsed," agreed the director of the Tsirkon research group, Igor Zadorin. The concern accumulated over the past 2 years, noted Marina Krasilnikova from the Levada Center: People were nervous about the tariffs on ZhKKh (housing-municipal services), and began to be frightened by inflation. People got really worried not in September, when the stock market collapsed for the first time, but in November, when the threat of unemployment came to the forefront.

In Moscow at the focus-group, the people appeared calm, even though they had recently lost their jobs. One was a sales manager, another had his own business, a third installed video surveillance systems, a fourth was a lab technician, etc. Tatyana worked as an economist in a jewelry store. When she was laid off, she flew to the Dominican Republic. "We are sleeping more," Yelena, a former personnel manager, looks on the bright side. Pavel - he had his own business - now takes care of his 3-month old child, and is even glad that he has the time to do so.

The Moscow residents appear prepared. They are not afraid. "This is not the first time, after all. In our unpredictable country, one can expect anything," reasoned installer Mikhail. And he continued: "There is an opportunity to start a new life. After all, it is believed that one must change one's lifestyle every 5 years." "I am calm about it. We must try to find ourselves somewhere else," logistician Sergey stolidly agreed with him. Tatyana, who had returned from the Dominican Republic, phoned her friends, whom she had not talked to for a 100 years, in search of a job. The conclusion of one life stage and the start of a new one - that was her view of the crisis after she lost her job. Moscow victims of the crisis have the feeling that the crisis is just a temporary difficulty, which must be lived through, says the director of the Validata Sociological Service, Mariya Volkenshteyn. She was the one who conducted the focus-groups in Moscow and Voronezh.

In Voronezh, things are worse. There, plants have come to a standstill. "We are on a 3-day work schedule, the tire plant has shut down, and the aviation plant is changing over to 4 days a week and 20-percent layoffs," recounted an elderly engineer, Tamara Karlovna. Judging by all, the relative prosperity in Voronezh lasted for about 2 years. "In 2006 and 2007, there was prosperity. Both in construction, and in industry. But a decline began in 2008," builder Mikhail Aleksandrovich chimes in. "But was there the feeling that tomorrow life would become better than yesterday?" "There was such a feeling. Already about 2 years (there were such feelings)," bookkeeper Yelena answered. "Former bookkeeper," she corrected herself with a bitter laugh.

The capital city and the province felt the economic growth of Putin's 8 years in different ways. In the capital, there was prosperity, but in the province, in Volkenshteyn's expression, it was sooner a pause between two crises. In the cities, there was strong industry, then the plants stopped work, then they started up again, but now they have once again come to a standstill. "In general, we have gone back to where we were before," the Validata director said at the conference. "And in this sense, there is much more pessimism (in the provinces). And abstract ideas that shake-ups are for the better are not dear to them."

You are like everyone else

Is it a correct reaction - to drop everything and go to the Dominican Republic? "Of course: What am I supposed to do, sit and cry over the crisis?", answered personnel manager Yelena from the Moscow group. Meanwhile,in Voronezh they once again started going to visit friends with their foodstuffs. "If you go, you have to buy something," Tamara Karlovna recounted. "Today, those who have no scruples are constantly going to visit friends, so as not to eat at home," Yevgeniy, the former manager of one of the Voronezh plants, said in all seriousness.

Misery loves company. Practically the strongest reassuring factor is that many people are getting laid off, you are not the only one. That is what the women in the Moscow group said. "If this had happened to me alone, that would have meant that I am a good-for-nothing, an unneeded person," explained Natalya from a sewing factory. On the whole, Moscow residents expect that the crisis will probably ease up by Fall. That is, it is not for long. If it drags on, former economist Tatyana would be willing to accept a lesser wage. Businessman Pavel bragged that he could go to work in a kolkhoz (collective farm), if the typographical services that he previously provided to advertisers are no longer needed.

Sociologist Volkenshteyn believes that this is merely a declaration. In fact, the Moscow middle class is not prepared to lose out in social status. The picture is different in Voronezh. "The chief editor of the local paper is working practically as a cargo handler. And he feels normal about it. Well, not normal, but he seems to have reconciled himself with it," she reported at the Higher School of Economics conference.

Moscow residents who are somewhat richer are not so eager to change their habits. Although Timofey Barsov, a market analyst from KOMKON, has already noted that coffee houses are thinning out and lines at the McDonalds are getting longer. Galina, from the recently closed Voronezh tire plant, complained that she must once again refrain from buying the products to which she barely had time to become accustomed. In 1998, consumption fell much more dramatically. "At that time, sales of all types of sausages, smoked goods, hot dogs and bratwurst suffered. Moreover, sales of smoked goods suffer during any crisis," Barsov recalled. "Practically all types of fish, imported vermicelli, and there was a dramatic dynamic for chocolate."

This time, this has not yet happened. The only thing that the newspapers report is that sales of foreign-made cars have dropped. "By objective indicators, there have been no serious crisis-related changes," Demidov from GfK spoke at the Higher School of Economics. Yes, sales of electronics have fallen, but as a result of "rejection of all kinds of bells and whistles." Olga Kuzina from the National Agency for Financial Research reported that the population has returned to a strategy of currency savings, but Krasilnikova from the Levada Center recalled that this concerns only those who have currency, while most people "are not present on the currency market." Sociologists are still surprised why there has not been a mass run on the banks by depositors.

Find the guilty party

Another focus-group was held with students of Moscow VUZes (higher educational institutions). They will soon have to be looking for a permanent job. And they already know that the situation with job vacancies is bad today. But they have grown tired of hearing talk of the crisis - at home and on the television news. "I have heard that some bankers are to blame for this world crisis. I do not remember in what country," says student Tatyana. "In America," Artem prompts. "You heard that on television? Do you believe what you hear on television?", Maksim chided her. He is studying to be a programmer. "I do believe," Tatyana answered seriously.

Sociologists have found that people believe any news, in which the discussion is about Mikhail Saakashvili and Viktor Yushchenko. "I heard that Saakashvili is a pawn in the hands of the American president," says student Tatyana. "Yushchenko is controlled by the Americans," the laid off sales manager Denis knows. No one argued with them. The January gas conflict undoubtedly distracted people from domestic problems. "Yes, it is good what they did," personnel manager Yelena approved of Putin's actions. "They should have done that long ago. Why did they wait and wait?", Sergey, a logistician by profession, agreed with the propaganda.

But as for the crisis itself, both in Moscow and in Voronezh they have formed the opinion that state TV is not the most reliable source of information. "Where do you learn about what is going on?", they were asked. "From my work book," joked Yelena, who had been laid off. In January, 21 percent of those polled told VTsIOM (All-Russia Center for the Study of Public Opinion) that the news is exaggerating the scope of the crisis and fanning panic. Those polled were unanimous in saying that they are tired of hearing about the crisis. Television, newspapers and anti-crisis advertising in the metro. Enough, already! But sociologists suspect that the people are just dodging the topic.

From what people say, we get the following picture. Even if the Americans did not stage this crisis on purpose, just to spite Russia - and this too is an accepted point of view - then at least they bear the full historical responsibility for it. People are ready to begin at the beginning. Former department manager Denis even recalled the Caribbean crisis - at that time, Western ideals won out in Russia, and since that time everyone sits in offices and does not want to go to work at the plants, and there is no production.

And now, this bubble has burst. "This is all coming from the West. It is all those white-collar workers," complained economist Tatyana, who was laid off from an office and who recently visited the Dominican Republic. Students also eagerly developed conspiracy theories. "After all, there is a plan for a world government," student Masha recalled. "This topic has been discussed for a long time now. So we must believe it," said Artem, who even quite recently worked at a finance company.

Not only America is to blame. In the Kremlin, according to certain data, they are recording the growth of a negative attitude toward the regional authorities and regional mass media. Sociologist Volkenshteyn also felt this in Voronezh: People are being laid off, while the governor is doubling the rates on ZhKKh (housing-municipal services). They are unhappy with Moscow, and with the abstract authorities. No one is accusing Putin and Medvedev of anything. They are like psychological supports in time of crisis. If we take offense at them too, then the world will once again become chaotic in the minds of the people, sociologists say. "The increase in public pessimism would be even more significant, were it not for the reserve of confidence in the top state leaders that was accumulated during the years of the country's prosperous development," Krasilnikova from the Levada Center writes in her report.

No one is planning to go to any rallies. Not with the dissidents, and not with United Russia. "In support of the government course? It seems somehow strange to support ourselves," laughs former businessman Pavel, while students cynically noted that it makes sense to turn out only for money. At the same time, specific decisions do not find support with them. Not one of the eight adults at the focus-group in Moscow approved of the introduction of duties on foreign-made cars, and only one student, whose parents work at KamAZ, approved of them. Vladimir Petukhov from the RAN (Russian Academy of Sciences) Sociology Institute sums up the situation: "Today among the people, there is not the feeling that Russia is a runaway train, which is speeding toward a dismantled track, as was the case in 1998." But sociologists also agree on something else: The people are not expecting anything good.

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Source: Russkiy Newsweek