27.03.09

Strategic goals remain the same; “we can bring Russia to a qualitatively new level by 2020,” he stressed, listing the main parameters that he said Russia should reach despite the continuing global crisis. Among other things, the middle class is expected to rise to 50-60 percent of the country’s working age population. Productivity of the leading industries will increase several times over, bringing the productivity factor in manufacturing to 4 (between 2 and 5-6 for other industries). Another strategic priority is to increase the life expectancy level in the country.

Russia’s socioeconomic program until 2020 was prepared in early 2008. Calls have been made to revise the document in view of the crisis, but the government has decided to leave it unchanged.

A 2.2 percent decline in Russia’s projected GDP for 2009 is comparable with other countries’ figures, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said today. Indeed, the United States expects to see a drop of between 2.6 and 3.5 percent, the EU countries are preparing for a 2.1-3 percent fall, and Japan’s GDP is set to shrink by up to 5.8 percent.

Developing economies, which rely strongly on exports, will face more significant declines. So-called transition economies are no exception, with Ukraine expecting a 9-11 percent drop, while Latvia’s GDP is projected to contract by 11 percent, and a 7-7.5 percent decrease is forecast for Hungary.

The Economy Ministry reported earlier that Russia’s GDP was down 8 percent in January and February 2009, and on the whole, a 7 percent decline was expected in the first quarter of the year. Industrial production dropped 14.6 percent on average in the first two months of the year, plunging 16 percent in January and 13.2 percent in February. The manufacturing sector shrank by 21 percent in January and February (down 24.1 percent in January and 18.3 percent in February).

According to the government’s revised socioeconomic development for 2009 approved on March 19, GDP is expected to drop 2.2 percent. The economic slowdown will continue in the first half of 2009 since the government’s anti-crisis measures are expected to take effect only towards the end of the second quarter.

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Source: RosBusinessConsulting