09.05.09

The Russian economy has been demonstrating a number of encouraging signs in April, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina told journalists.

"We are following trends with electricity consumption and rail shipments on a weekly basis. There are encouraging signals that the economy is nevertheless taking on a new kind of trend," she said.

It is still too early to talk about a steady trend, she said. "There have been tentative improvements. We'll see what happens further," she said.

Asked about forecasts for 2009, Nabiullina said calculations are currently being made based on various scenarios, including the situation in the global economy and with oil prices. A consensus forecast by analysts indicates that oil prices could grow this year, she said.

Many different scenarios are being considered, and the government will mull over the core scenario in late May, she said.

"When we presented our last official forecast on a 2.2% decline in the economy in 2009, we noted that there were risks with the realization of this forecast related to the global economy and the speed at which our anti-crisis measures are passed," he said.

A source familiar with the Economic Development Ministry's working forecasts told Interfax last week that the ministry is predicting GDP will decline by 6%-7.4% this year in its various scenarios.

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Source: Interfax