03.02.09

Opinion polls indicate that while most Russian citizens are seriously alarmed about the growing economic crisis, they haven't experienced any real consequences for themselves as yet - so mass protests are unlikely for the time being. But Russia's political parties don't trust opinion polls.

The latest poll results from the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) indicate that while most Russian citizens are seriously alarmed about the growing economic crisis, they haven't experienced any real consequences for themselves as yet - so mass protests are unlikely for the time being. But Russia's political parties - pro-Kremlin and opposition parties alike - don't trust opinion polls; they are attempting to lead street protests already.

VTsIOM reports that economic problems head the list of problems requiring urgent solutions. At the very top of the list is inflation - the rising prices of goods and services - named by 61% of respondents as a cause of concern. This compares with 68% of respondents giving the same answer in a March 2008 poll. But VTsIOM maintains that the lower percentage is not due to any upswing in the public mood. "It's simply that other sources of alarm have emerged," says VTsIOM General Director Valery Fedorov.

Second on the list in the latest poll, for example, is unemployment (61%); only 25% of respondents named it in March 2008. Some unexpectedly high percentages were recorded for issues making their debut in the latest poll. The economic crisis - included among the response options for the first time in January - scored 23% as a source of concern for Russia as a whole, and 27% when respondents were asked to name sources of concern for them personally. Moreover, 20% of respondents said they are concerned about pay delays and backlogs; according to Fedorov, VTsIOM stopped including this issue among its response options in 2002, "since the problem had ceased to exist."

The public's perception of crisis-related problems is largely shaped by the media. For example, 61% of respondents describe unemployment as a problem for Russia as a whole, but only 42% name it as a source of concern for themselves. In contrast, 66% see inflation as a problem for themselves (61% see it as a problem for Russia); 41% of respondents say that living standards are a source of concern for them personally (32% see living standards as a problem for Russia). The lowest score went to extremism (4%, with a statistical error margin of 3.4%), energy security (2%), and issues related to changes of government and continuity (2%).

Overall, says Fedorov, growing concern should not be regarded as growing discontent or readiness to protest: "so far, people are only seeing their fears become more immediate" - job loss, no income, and so on - and this is happening because they have received information about "problems affecting other people, not only themselves."

Fedorov admits that there is some discontent, "but it hasn't found a target yet." The approval ratings of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Cabinet are not falling. So protests are localized; conflicts arise not due to dissatisfaction with state policy as a whole, but for some specific reason - such as the car-owner protests in the Russian Far East. However, says Fedorov, "people are not well-informed" about the government's anti-crisis measures - "they don't know whether there is any overall plan for fighting the crisis." Fedorov declines to predict whether any parties, especially opposition parties, will be able to increase their influence during the crisis: "So far, people don't see any connection between the crisis and the parties."

The parties, including United Russia, are aiming to ride the protest wave - disregarding the fact that pollsters haven't detected any such wave as yet. This week, United Russia is planning pro-government rallies to counter-act the car-driver protests against higher import duties on foreign-made cars.

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Source: Kommersant