01.03.09

Sergei Aleksashenko (Central Bank Assistant Chairman in 1995-1998): I'd say Putin will go of his own volition but not now. When Medvedev's presidency ends in 2012.

Sergei Mitrokhin (Yabloko): I don't think so, because Putin is Medvedev's employer. It was Putin who made Medvedev the president.

Dmitry Oreshkin (Mercator Group): I reckon that everything will be decided within the next 6-9 months. Putin may jump the ship and become the head of a new state of Russia and South Ossetia, or he will become a burden for Medvedev. Made so by the deteriorating state of affairs in the national economy, that is. This latter turn of events will be preceded by an anti-Putin campaign in the media. Medvedev is a bit of a coward (that's why they made him the president in the first place) but even cowards become bold when they are cornered. Anyway, we'll know inside of six months.

Ruslan Grinberg (Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences): Yes, in theory, but actually no. First, it will undermine the existing principle of tandemocracy. Second, Medvedev lacks the personnel for the government. He has nobody to replace Putin or his ministers with. It is said that one shouldn't swap horses in midstream but Russia is always in midstream.

Oksana Dmitriyeva (Duma, Fair Russia faction): He'd better sack financial ministers for starters. It is these people who make absolutely irresponsible decisions that result in reckless wastage of the gold and hard currency reserves. The Americans have their Paulson's Plan, and what do we have? Nobody knows anything. Nobody knows who makes decisions or who is responsible for them.

Igor Yurgens (Russian Business and Entrepreneurship Union, Institute of Modern Development): Forget it. There is nothing to fire the premier for. Putin is doing all he can, so that firing him would be a height of folly. Actually, dismissing Kudrin and his men will be an even worse mistake because Kudrin is one of the few people who behaved adequately before the crisis and remain adequate now.

Mikhail Delyagin (Institute of Globalization, aide to the premier in 2002-2003): It's like Mohammed firing Allah. Resignation of the government will only follow avalanche-like devaluation or cessation of territories from Russia.

Boris Nemtsov (senior deputy premier in 1997-1998): Resignation of the Cabinet is the first anti-crisis measure. Finding the typist to type the decree is all it will take. There are lots of things to hold the government responsible for - for what was done to the gold and hard currency reserves, for aid to oligarchs (Deripaska, Sechin, Bogdanchikov, Chemezov, Abramovich)... For what was done to the National Prosperity Fund when 175 billion rubles were withdrawn from it. The sum I'm talking about was withdrawn to support the financial market which collapsed as soon as the money was transacted. The country lacks a proper budget, and we owe it to Putin. That alone is a sufficient reason to fire him.

Nikolai Zlobin (US Defense Information Center): Time to start thinking about it. It was easy for Putin to play the part of economic guru when he had affluent oil export dividends at his disposal. Unfortunately, it's not what is needed nowadays, but all money goes to pals and acquaintances all the same. This patching up may be fine for a brief period, but it is a strategy that is needed and a strategy is what the government of Russia lacks. At the same time, I do not think that Medvedev has anybody in mind to replace Putin with.

Alexander Pochinok (Federation Council): Only Medvedev himself knows the answer. The way I see it, however, the government is fine. We'd better let it alone to give it a chance to do its job instead of firing it.

Andrei Bunich (Union of Businessmen and Renters): I don't think that even Medvedev himself knows an answer to that. As for the government and what it has been doing by way of dealing with the crisis, it's all wrong. The government composed the budget on the assumption that oil would cost $95 when oil was already cheaper than that... I do not even think that the government has any anti-crisis program at all.

Gennadi Seleznev (Duma ex-chairman): It's impossible right now. Putin has United Russia, and this political party controls the Duma. United Russia is not going to abandon its leader at this point. The premier knows that he needs support, hence his promises to quadruple pensions. Anyway, United Russia's position will become considerably less solid when the crisis reached the regions and disturbances began there.

Gennadi Gudkov (Duma, Security Committee Assistant Chairman): Why? Best experienced of them all, Putin has been doing fine. If you want my opinion, it is the financial bloc of the government that failed.

Eduard Limonov (outlawed National Bolshevik Party): Sure. He should fire Putin and Nurgaliyev as well (Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev - Kommersant-VLAST). Unfortunately, that's wishful thinking.

Stanislav Belkovsky (Institute of National Strategy): Yes, he should, because his options are limited. Either Medvedev pins the blame on Putin and sacks the government, or he shoulders all responsibility.

Sergei Stankevich (Evroservis CEO, Boris Yeltsin's advisor in 1992-1993): No, because they are inseparable. Either they go down together or weather this storm together. This latter is not impossible even now, as long as they explain to society why all major aid had gone to state corporations.

Miguel Fernandez (EFE Moscow Bureau): No way. Medvedev did not even fire Aleksei Miller of Gazprom in the course of the gas conflict. He merely reprimanded him, and that was all.

Valeria Novodorskaya (Democratic Union): Putin will fire Medvedev rather than the other way round. He has all security structures in his pocket.

Vladimir Kashin (CPRF Central Committee Presidium Assistant Chairman): No, I don't think Medvedev will fire him, but Putin may decide to step down of his own volition. He knows after all that the crisis is systemic and that the people he surrounded himself with cannot solve problems. A different team is needed.

Modest Kolerov (Free Russia): When it happened, it would be for a different reason and in a different situation. Our powers-that-be re immune to external pressures. They have their own considerations to bear in mind and schedules to keep.

Read More about Services from Alinga Consulting Group

Source: Kommersant-VLAST